The process for developing PDPs in Thailand proceeds in two key steps. The first is the creation of an electricity demand forecast. The second is the creation of a plan (the PDP) that lists the resources (power plants) that will be deployed, and in what time frames, to ensure that the electricity demand forecast can be met with the specified level of reliability.
The load forecast is developed by the Thai Load Forecast Subcommittee, under the Energy Ministry, while the PDP itself is crafted by EGAT under the broad policy guidelines of the Energy Ministry and is subject to reviews by a hierarchy of committees chaired by Energy Ministry Permanent Secretary. The final approval is by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC), chaired by the Prime Minister and comprised of cabinet members and high level bureaucrats from relevant ministries. After approval by NEPC (also known as the “energy sub-cabinet”), the PDP is generally approved by the Cabinet without further review. The Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) serves as the secretary to the NEPC.
It is worth noting that several key decision makers involved in the above-mentioned committees are also sitting on the board of directors of energy companies that have direct vested interest in the PDP process. Meanwhile, small consumers and the public are under-represented and have very limited roles in participating in the decision making process.
In addition to conflict of interest there are two other structural problems: monopoly, and the “cost-plus” incentive structure. These are important issues to address and have been addressed elsewhere[1] but are beyond the scope of this paper. This paper addresses the symptoms: that the latest PDP 2010, like previous PDPs, calls for too many power plants, of the wrong kinds (overly risky, expensive, and socially and environmentally destructive). Next sections will explore the flaws of the two key steps of the PDP process – demand forecasting and procuring supplies – in detail.
[1] For example, see “รสนา โตสิ ตระกูล ชําแหละ แผนพัฒนาผลิตไฟฟ้ าใหม โยนภาระค่ าโง่ ปีละแสนล้ านให้ ประชาชน” 8 March 2010, http://www.oknation.net/blog/sutku/2010/03/08/entry-2, and “Rethinking “energy security” and power sector planning: a case study of Thailand” Greacen, 2012, http://www.palangthai.org/docs/RethinkingEnergySecurityChomMEENET18Jan2012.pptx.